Comparison between results in Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using parametric continuous data and labelled seismic data.

In this WP we will compare the results derived in WP3 and WP4 with those obtained in WP5, i.e. evolution of parametric data bases in each Case Studies and the correspondent evolution in term of type and number of labelled seismic events. For each Case Studies we will obtain a set of characteristics that represent the forecast patter in both, continuous parametric data base and time evolution of different seismic event classes. For example a set of temporary marks in which each parameter of classes change with time prior a Case Studies (eruptive or non-eruptive); energy evolution; number and classes of seismic events, etc.

Now we must look for similarities and differences between the two ways (WP3-WP4 and WP5) to board the problem of the volcanic eruption forecast. The final goal is to find the possibility to define a “Manual of volcanic forecast” according the type of analysis the operator is using. This manual has to contain the “Common Points” derived from both studies, permitting to the future operator to choose which could be the best way to monitor the volcanic environment using seismic data according the available instruments in the Volcanic Observatory or the policy defined by Civil Protection authorities. In many Observatories it is mandatory to provide a daily bulleting enumerating and analysing the recorded seismic events; in this case results of WP5 are the best option. On the contrary, if new instrumentation is deployed in a new site looking for the most automatic procedure, WP3-WP4 is the primary option.

The working team will be leader by Prof. Ibáñez and Benítez with a direct collaboration all researchers of the Research Team and of the Working Team.

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